Alphabet, Q1/2022:

Das Alphabet-Werbegeschäft legt zu um +22,3% auf 54,66 Mrd. USD; Search, Maps und andere gewohnt stark mit +24,3% auf 39,62 Mrd. USD. Die aus dem Netzwerk vermittelten Werbeumsätze legen mit +20,2% auf 8,17 Mrd. USD wie immer etwas weniger schnell zu. CBO Schindler sagte im Quartals-Call, „Retail was again the largest contributor to year-on-year growth of our ads business in Q1, followed by travel. Speaking of travel, people are seemingly back on the move.“

Youtube-Werbung in diesem Quartal mit merklich verlangsamtem (und für Teile der Analysten-Zunft „enttäuschendem“) Wachstum von 14,7% auf 6,87 Mrd. USD, was allerdings, so Schindler, lediglich auf die extrem hohe Vergleichsbasis im Jahresvergleich bei der Direct response-Werbung zurückgeht, die jetzt etwas verhaltener gewachsen ist, während das Brands-Geschäft erneut dynamisch zugelegt hat. Trotz der Klarstellung von Schindler „befürchten“ die „Analysten nachlassendes Youtube-Wachstum. Befeuert wurde die Befürchtung durch die Senkung der Q2-Guidance von Snap. Das Unternehmen teilte mit, das prognostizierte Wachstum von 20% bis 25% werde unterschritten. Daraufhin sackte der Snap-Aktienkurs um knapp 40%, auch Alphabet wurde mit ca. -7% mit heruntergezogen, nachdem Analysten befürchten, dass das aktuell verhaltenere Wachstum des Werbegeschäfts bei Snap auf vorsichtigere Werbeausgaben hindeuten könnte, also auch das Wachstumstempo bei Alphabet bremsen könnte. Nur: Snap ist für Werber erheblich weniger attraktiv als Alphabet, die sieben Plattformen haben und die jeden Tag von jeweils mindestens 2 Mrd. Menschen genutzt werden. Wer Online-Werbung schaltet, wird zu allerletzt bei Google Search, Youtube, Google Maps etc. Werbeaktionen canceln. Als im Verlauf der Corona-Pandemie Snap und andere Social Media-Firmen wie Pinterest und Twitter in ihren Quartalsberichten einbrechende Werbeumsätze meldeten, meldete Alphabet ein paar Wochen später in ihrem Quartalsbericht ein gutes Wachstum, zwar verhaltener als üblich, aber dennoch satt zweistellig – vor allem legten die Margen dank gigantischer Skaleneffekte weiter zu.

Abos, Apps, Pay etc. wachsen mit +4,9% auf 6,81 Mrd. USD. Das dieses Mal maue Wachstum ist Folge der Änderung des Preismodells bei Google Play: 99% der App-Entwickler zahlen lediglich 15% ihres Umsatzes oder weniger an Google (bisher waren es 30%, was die Kartellbehörden weltweit auf den Plan gerufen hatte, weshalb Google die Preise für kleinere App-Entwickler gesenkt hat). CEO Pichai sagte dazu im Call, die Preisänderung belaste zwar kurzfristig, aber langfristig werden mehr Anreize für kleine App-Entwickler geschaffen, was das „ecosystem“ von Google Play und der Gaming-Plattform strukturell schneller vergrößert und für Nutzer noch attraktiver macht. Auf gut Deutsch: Alphabet geht davon aus, dass das Absatzwachstum die Preissenkung überkompensiert.

Alphabet betont seit zwei Jahrzehnten, man investiere „for the long term“. Diese langfristige Denkweise hat sich bei Youtube ausgezahlt (Youtube war erst rund elf Jahre nach dem Kauf durch Google erstmals profitabel, mittlerweile ist Youtube eine Mega-Cash-Cow), beim Cloud-Geschäft investiert Alphabet seit mittlerweile vier Jahren, bei den meisten „other bets“ wie Waymo (autonomes Fahren) seit über zehn Jahren.

Der extrem hohe und auch extrem schnell wachsende Cash Flow aus dem Werbegeschäft erlaubt es Alphabet, wirklich langfristig in neue Geschäftsfelder zu investieren.

Porat sagte im Call, Treiber des Wachstums bei „Google other“ sei „substantial growth in YouTube non-advertising revenues driven by subscriber growth in YouTube Music and Premium and YouTube TV“ gewesen.

Cloud wächst mit 43,8% auf 5,82 Mrd. USD, so Pichai, „continued strong performance across Google Cloud Platform and Workspace.“ Treiber des Wachstums seien vor allem Cyber-Security sowie die integrierte Data Cloud- und AI-Plattform mit der offenen Sicherheits-Architektur, die es den Nutzern ermöglicht, mit ihren vorhandenen IT-Systemen die Cloud- und AI-Plattform von Alphabet zu nutzen, ohne aufwändige Systemanpassungen vornehmen zu müssen, was neben der führenden AI-Technologie ein echter Differentiator ist. CFO Porat ergänzte, die Dynamik bei Google Workspace „was driven by solid growth in both seats and average revenue per seat.“

CEO Pichai erläuterte im Call auch die ökonomische Rationale des jüngsten Cloud-Zukaufs Mandiant (5,4 Mrd. USD Kaufpreis): „Cybersecurity has been a particular focus. We obviously are excited about our acquisition of Mandiant, which I think will help us serve customers deeper as well. But overall, the execution has been great. We are scaling up, particularly in our go-to-market as well. And I think that will play out well. And over time, as we focus on converting bookings to consumption as well, I think it will play out well, taking a long-run view and methodically scaling up and executing better.“

+122,2% auf 440 Mio. USD. Porat sagte im Call, vor allem im zweiten Quartal, aber auch im zweiten Halbjahr seien die Komparative im Jahresvergleich noch höher als in Q1, weshalb sich das organische Umsatzwachstum voraussichtlich wieder mehr normalisieren sollte, zumal sich ab dem zweiten Quartal die Geschäftsaufgabe in Russland auswirke (rd. 1% des Konzernumsatzes). Auch diese Aussage kam bei etlichen Analysten nicht gut an. Dabei wächst Alphabet auch „mehr normalisiert“ im hohen zweistelligen Bereich.

Das regionale Umsatzwachstum:  USA +27% auf 31,73 Mrd. USD, Kanada/Lateinamerika +35% auf 3,92 Mrd. USD, Asien/Afrika/Australien +19% auf 12,44 Mrd. USD, Europa/Naher Osten +27% auf 21,63 Mrd. USD, (Hedging 278 Mio. USD, FX 1,99 Mrd. USD).

Alphabet ist mit seinem extrem hohen F&E-Budget (alleine im Berichtsquartal 9,12 Mrd. USD = 13,41% des Umsatzes) traditionell innovationsgetrieben. Alphabet entwickelt -wie schon immer- neue Produkte en masse, insbesondere bei Machine Learning/Künstlicher Intelligenz (ML/AI). Pichai und Schindler führten, wie in jedem Quartals-Call, einige Beispiele für neue Produkte an. Diese geben wir am Ende dieses Quartalsberichtes wieder.

“We launched multisearch in Google Search this quarter. It’s a new way people can find what they need using both images and words. For example, you can snap a photo of a shirt pattern and then type the word green to find a green shirt with that pattern. We also shared new features in Search to help people find health care providers who take their insurance and book appointments online. With ads automation, search ads powered by AI are helping our customers quickly respond to the market conditions most relevant to their business.“

„YouTube Shorts is now averaging over 30 billion daily views. That’s 4x as much as a year ago. In the first quarter, we added new capabilities to video editing, and we are continuing to invest in making Shorts a fantastic experience for creators and viewers alike. As we’ve always done with products, we focus on building a great user experience first, and we will work to build monetization over time.“ Schindler betonte wie im Q4/2021-Call, man teste für Shorts weiterhin die beste Werbe-Form: „Shorts is another area we’re really excited about. Engagement is strong, and we’re focused on delivering great experiences for users, creators and advertisers. In fact, we’re testing ads on Shorts with products like app install and video action campaigns. And while it’s still early days, we’re encouraged by initial advertiser feedback and results, which brings me to our partners and how we’re closely collaborating with them to grow and evolve healthier, sustainable ecosystems and bring them the best of Google.“

„The living room is another area of opportunity. On average, viewers are watching over 700 million hours of YouTube content on televisions every day. And in the year ahead, we will give YouTube’s connected TV viewers new smartphone control navigation and interactivity features, allowing people to comment and share content they are watching on television directly from their devices.“

„For brand, we’re enthusiastic about what’s ahead for connected TV. Brands are turning to us to tap into the shift to streaming and reach new audiences in smarter and more efficient ways. Over 135 million people in the U.S. were reached via YouTube on connected TVs in December. We’ve recently rolled out new tools to help advertisers consistently plan and measure their CTV spend across platforms. And later this year, in partnership with Nielsen, we’ll help brands directly compare their YouTube reach to linear TV, including the ability to measure coviewing. This apples-to-apples comparison will be a game changer in helping advertisers make smarter investment decisions. (…) According to Nielsen, in the U.S., YouTube accounts for over 50% of ad-supported streaming watch time on connected TVs among people ages 18 and up. And over 35% of viewers in this group can’t be reached by any other ad-supported streaming service. In other words, we’re seeing that when users choose to watch ad-supported CTV, they choose to watch YouTube, and YouTube delivers CTV audiences that advertisers can reach anywhere else. Brands are taking notice.“

„In hardware, Pixel 6 is a huge step forward for the Pixel portfolio, and it’s been great to see the response from Pixel users. It’s the fastest- selling Pixel ever, and we are building broad consumer awareness of the brand and making good progress.“

„We continue to deliver differentiated products across 4 distinct areas. First, cybersecurity, where we introduced new offerings, including Assured Workloads to address digital sovereignty in the European Union; Virtual Machine Threat Detection, a first-to-market agentless malware detection capability; an advanced intrusion detection system for network threat detection. Organizations like T- Mobile and DoorDash are protecting their critical systems and data with Google Cloud’s trusted cybersecurity products. These include Security Command Center, which helps many companies, including UKG, Ultimate Kronos Group, and Ocado Group, monitor and manage their security posture and risk. Our leading threat detection and response platform, Chronicle, is now paired with Simplify to more quickly automate incident detection and resolution. We also announced our intent to acquire Mandiant, a leader in dynamic cyber defense and response, to help protect customers from the most advanced threats. Second, we continue to evolve a leading data cloud with serverless Spark to run batch Spark workloads; BigLake, a new storage engine that unifies data warehouses and lakes; and Dataplex, which provides unified management and governance of data across data warehouses and lakes. Our unified data cloud and AI platform is helping organizations like KeyBanc, LG Electronics, and Macy’s work intelligently with data across multiple clouds. BigQuery, our leading solution for analytics, is helping customers like Kraft Heinz, Mercado Libre and Vertabelo to help create more personal consumer experiences. BT Group, UPS and other leading brands continue to tap our deep expertise in artificial intelligence and machine learning to power their organizations. This includes our Contact Center AI platform, which helped The Home Depot improve their call containment by 185%, creating a more positive customer support experience. We are proud to share that more than 700 technology partners power their applications with our data cloud. Third, our open secure infrastructure remains a differentiator as it enables customers to run their workloads and apps where they need them. This is winning global brands like Dun & Bradstreet, Boeing and Kyocera. Our product leadership continued with the release of Tau VMs, which powers price performance that’s more than 40% better than any other leading cloud; and Google Distributed Cloud Edge, a new edge solution designed to run telecommunication networks at scale, which is helping Bell Canada evolve its 5G network. And we further expanded our regional footprint globally. Leading companies like Mahindra are choosing us for large-scale IT transformations and migrating their data centers to Google Cloud, while Sony’s Crunchyroll uses our infrastructure and networking capabilities to power the largest anime streaming service in the world. Our scalability enables Ninja Van, the leading logistics provider in Southeast Asia, to handle more than 10x their normal traffic during peak times. Finally, we continue to advance Google Workspace. To support hybrid work, we recently introduced new collaboration features, including bringing Google Meet directly into Google Docs, Sheets and Slides. You can now see and hear your team as you collaborate in real time without the need to schedule meetings. Google Meet can now live stream to up to 100,000 people who can also participate in Q&A and polls. We also launched the next wave of innovation in Google Docs with smart canvas, including auto-generated summaries and pageless format in Docs, smart chips and automating workflow using Gmail. Smart canvas has seen very rapid uptake with more than 6 million checklist and 6 million smart chips being added to documents each week. These innovations are helping employees adapt to hybrid work at large enterprises like Equifax and Ocean Network Express, digital natives including Flipkart and organizations like the University of Alberta.“

„Let’s talk Performance Max, our newest AIpowered campaign that allows businesses to harness the best of automation to drive the most optimal performance across all Google Ads inventory. Since launching globally in November, PMax has seen strong customer adoption, particularly among smaller businesses. PMax‘ simplicity shows how we’re moving from a model in which businesses needed to understand the complex language of campaigns, keywords, CPC and so on to a model where we understand the company’s goals and actively help them achieve their business objectives. Take ASSIST CARD, a leading LatAm travel assistance company who first tested PMax to accelerate its recovery in Argentina. Initial test to drive sales yielded a 40% lower cost per acquisition at a 15x higher conversion rate versus other campaigns with the same goals. (…) Consumers are finding a new balance between online and in-person. Google Maps searches for shopping near me were up 100% globally year-over-year. People want to buy from brands that provide a seamless experience wherever and whenever they prefer to shop. For local businesses and big box retailers alike, this remains a big opportunity. Omnichannel is still a winning strategy.“